Sharing Sustainability Innovation

We have severe unsustainability issues on the planet. Global warming is a fact. So far almost everybody seems to agree. But whether the global warming is man-made or not remains a debate despite the fact that thousands of well-merited climate scientists have collaborated to reach the IPCC conclusions. Here is a recent debate article by Lars Bern (in Swedish) which has stirred up the discussions in Swedish media again.

What so many of the opponents to man-made climate change fails to recognize is that the efforts to mitigate as well as adapt to climate change makes sense whether it is man-made or not.

Mitigation

The mitigation efforts are mainly related to reducing CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.  Does this make sense if climate change is not man-made? Yes it does:

1. We are currently at peak oil (oil production has not increased over the last 4 years) and the new oil fields that have been discovered mostly have oil reserves that are very expensive to get up and refine. Typically significantly more expensive than the most efficient renewable energy sources. And saving energy by more effective processes is typically profitable already today.
2. Even if the warming is not man-made it makes sense to try to get all possible cooling effect anyway to mitigate the warming, due to the global consequences of a changing climate.
3. Fossil fuel burning is a major pollutant of sulphur, nitrogen, particles and organic compounds that impact health and environment in a very negative way.

Adaptation

The other other part we need to work with is adaptation. Global Warming is already happening and we need to adapt to changing climate in different parts of the world. This is true whether the changes are man-made or not. This includes decreased fresh water access from the Andes in South America and in South Asia from the Himalayas due to melting glaciers. It includes higher temperatures and droughts and desertification in Sub-saharan Africa. It includes sea level rise with severe impact all around the world.

Precautionary Principle

With some simple scenario analysis based on what I have written above, the precautionary principle also tells us to act now. Look at these four scenarios:

1. Man-made climate change is real. We take action now.
   We (may) manage to avoid a climate catastrophe and save hundreds of millions of lives.
2. Man-made climate change is real. We don’t take action now, because we are not absolutely sure.
   We end up with a climate catastrophe, we kill hundreds of millions of people and end up with a planet much less friendly to live on.
3. Man-made climate change is false. We take action now anyway.
   We do things we would have needed to do in any case. We manage to reduce the impact of climate change despite the fact that it is not man-made. We end up with a fierce planet but we have tried to adapt and have thereby saved many lives.
4. Man-made climate change is false. We quarrel and take no action.
   We end up with severe impact from the climate change which is not man-made because of less focus on mitigation and adaptation. We are still trapped with fossil fuels causing health problems, and the transfer to renewables is much more painful when it is needed anyway in a couple of years.

To me, there is no way to justify the “No-action” alternatives 2. and 4. The actions undertaken in 1. and 3. makes perfect sense regardless if we are certain or not of man-made climate change.